Episode #89: Three Breakthroughs: The Future of Fighting Wildfires

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  Samantha Herrick:
  Welcome to the Tech Optimist, where we don’t just discuss the future—we step right into it. I’m Samantha Herrick, your guide on this journey to discovery, invention, and transformation. Today’s Three Breakthroughs episode brings you three pivotal moments in tech and science that are changing how we think, live, and create. These are the kinds of stories that remind us why innovation fuels optimism. Curious? Let’s dive into breakthrough number one.

  Before we dive into the first breakthrough, though, let’s take a quick pause. Innovation doesn’t happen in a vacuum, and neither does this show, so we’re going to take a second for a quick word from the sponsors and a few internal AV funds. So, hang tight.

  Speaker 2:
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  Samantha Herrick:
  As a reminder, the Tech Optimist podcast is for informational purposes only. It is not personalized advice, and it is not an offer to buy or sell securities. For additional important details, please see the text description accompanying this episode.

  Welcome, tech enthusiasts, to this special episode of the Tech Optimist. Today, we’re diving into three groundbreaking breakthroughs shaping the world as we know it.

  Mike Collins:
  Hi. Welcome to Three Breakthroughs, the Alumni Ventures podcast where founder and CEO Mike Collins gets together with one of our smart young people to talk about what’s going on in technology. This quarter, I’m joined by Lucas. Hi, Lucas.

  Lucas:
  Hi, Mike. Great to be with you again.

  Samantha Herrick:
  First, we’re diving into OpenAI’s game-changing Tasks—a new feature poised to transform productivity and take us closer to the future of AI agents. Imagine AI handling complex workflows seamlessly. It’s not as far off as you think.

  Next, we shift gears to tackle one of our planet’s most urgent challenges: wildfires. Tech innovators are stepping up with AI-powered cameras and firefighting robots, revolutionizing how we predict and respond to these devastating natural disasters. It’s climate tech at its finest, building resilience and saving lives.

  Finally, we’re going to delve into the mind—literally. Cutting-edge advancements in neuroscience, like lab-grown microglia and regenerative medicine, are pushing the boundaries of brain health. These breakthroughs could unlock new treatments for neurodegenerative diseases and even enable brain regeneration. Yes, you heard that right. This is innovation at its boldest. Get ready to explore the future—it’s starting right now.

  Mike Collins:
  I wanted to kick off this week—again, no surprise—talking about AI. Just a couple of things I think are in the news that our customers and portfolio companies may have heard of, but if not, should know about.

  First, OpenAI came out this week with Tasks, which seems like a small, kind of trivial announcement: these are things I could do with my iPhone—reminders, those kinds of things—not terribly complicated. But I think it’s much more meaningful than that.

  I think this is the first baby step toward agents, and it’s actually a really nice chess move. If you can get people to take what is basically the simplest agent function you can and get them thinking this way and playing with it, that’s powerful.

  For example, I created several agents myself. One is to pull news every week related to GLP-1 weight loss drugs. It’s an area of interest for me—investment opportunities—and there are announcements I may have missed about semaglutide, regulatory changes, insurance issues, or particularly new drugs in the pipeline.

  You can do this three different ways, but in the spirit of wanting to hop onto AI early, I created a task where every Thursday OpenAI searches the web, consolidates the news, gives me a summary, and sends it to my inbox. It asked for permission to do that and worked very slickly.

  But I think Tasks are just a baby step toward what’s next—it will start doing things on other websites, pulling data, making actions. Walking before you run makes sense. It may sound trivial now, but I think there’s something deeper at work.

  Lucas:
  I think there’s also something really elegant about OpenAI’s strategy in that regard. It’s a baby step not because they need to take a baby step, but because they’ve always been, for a few years now, on the cutting edge of bringing the general public up to speed with what AI can do.

  This is a way of doing that. Like you said, you’re introducing an AI agent essentially in these pretty menial tasks, but they’re accessible to the broad public.

  For me, I’ve played around a lot over the years with Zapier and tried to develop my own personal workflows.

  Mike Collins:
  Sure.

  Lucas:
  This immediately clicks in my head as a much easier way to set up Zaps to trigger certain actions I take. So I love that this is OpenAI’s strategy to go broad well before—and maybe we’ll talk about this here shortly—all the things that the more technical developers are excited about for AI agents.

  Samantha Herrick:
  Let’s talk about OpenAI’s latest leap forward—one that takes us closer to the era of autonomous AI systems, a concept we’ve talked about a lot on this show. On January 14, 2025, OpenAI launched Tasks, a new feature for ChatGPT that has already been hailed as a major step into the world of agentic AI. From personal experience using this, I completely agree. So, let’s talk a little bit more about it.

  What exactly is Tasks? Imagine being able to schedule reminders, get daily weather updates, or receive weekly news summaries—all handled automatically by ChatGPT. It’s like having a personal assistant that works seamlessly in the background, managing routine tasks so you can focus on what really matters.

  Here’s how it works: Users can access the feature by selecting “Chat with Scheduled Tasks” from the model menu. From there, you can set and manage up to 10 active tasks at a time through a dedicated section in your profile. Once a task is completed, you’ll receive a notification on your browser, macOS, or even mobile device. Right now, Tasks is available to GPT Teams and Pro subscribers, but OpenAI plans to roll it out to additional tiers, including Plus and Enterprise, in the near future.

  And that’s not all. OpenAI has also introduced Operator, a more advanced AI agent that can autonomously handle complex tasks like booking travel, making reservations, or even online shopping. While still in research preview and available only to U.S. users on the $200 Pro plan, Operator showcases the future of AI—a future where multi-step processes are handled with minimal human intervention.

  If they can do this, imagine what else is possible. As CEO Sam Altman put it, 2025 is shaping up to be the year when agents will truly operate. With Tasks and Operators, OpenAI is turning that vision into reality, opening up endless possibilities for productivity, automation, and convenience.

  Mike Collins:
  So much of business isn’t about who has the best technology or who’s first—it’s about who finds the way to make it accessible to customers. You can make lots of arguments about whether the iPhone 1 was technically the best, but what it did was allow people to take baby steps into smartphones.

  I think Sam Altman—you always look for founder-market fit—because he’s seen so much in startups, Y Combinator, and has great pattern recognition. I think his instincts for bringing something to market are spot on. ChatGPT changed the world. Yes, there were other AI tools, but it’s the one that rocked the world, shook the industry to its core, and got Alphabet off its ass to start moving.

  Their naming is, frankly, crap—they joke about it—but sometimes you laugh at yourself. It’s also clever marketing.

  Lucas:
  Sam is good at laughing at himself.

  Mike Collins:
  Yes.

  Lucas:
  I like that you brought up the iPhone. On Black Friday, I got the new iPhone 16 to make sure I had the latest and greatest chip as Apple starts releasing more and more AI features. Man, Siri sucks.

  Mike Collins:
  Yeah.

  Samantha Herrick:
  It’s crazy.

  Mike Collins:
  No, I mean, I’m an Apple fanboy, but anyone with clear eyes can see that where they are with AI today is a joke. Don’t count them out—they’re never first to the game, but they’re clearly behind. When Genmoji is your big release, you’re in trouble.

  Lucas:
  Marvelous.

  Mike Collins:
  They’ve got to get their act together for sure.

  Lucas:
  And if they don’t, they leave an opening for Sam Altman to get more and more into hardware.

  Mike Collins:
  100%, which is… I want to quickly talk about a couple of other things in AI—the smaller model that came out. What was it, Nova?

  Lucas:
  Nova Sky.

  Mike Collins:
  Nova Sky, right?

  Lucas:
  [inaudible].

  Mike Collins:
  Yeah, which is incredibly good and incredibly cheap. This is the important point: competition in the free market is going to be really, really good for consumers—with lots of niches, applications, and innovation. The power and low cost of this model is jaw-dropping.

  Lucas:
  $450.

  Mike Collins:
  Crazy.

  Lucas:
  It’s unbelievable. They used a training method that challenges some of the most fundamental norms in AI model development.

  Mike Collins:
  Yeah, and you throw that on a $3,000 desktop AI hardware piece from Nvidia, and it’s like magic on your desktop. Crazy.

  Lucas:
  Yeah, and importantly, it can reportedly perform reasoning tasks as well as models that are larger and more expensive to train—logic puzzles, language inference, general problem-solving tasks that are at the heart of what we hope AI can do for us. Truly groundbreaking, and like you said, it levels the playing field.

  I’m not sure what’s being discussed behind closed doors at the major foundational model companies, but they’re surely thinking about how to handle this moving forward.

  Mike Collins:
  Never underestimate the power of a small group of people being creative—finding new ways to do things with less money, fewer people, fewer resources, but with imagination. That’s another real power of our system. Congratulations to that team.

  Noteworthy: they kicked ass on benchmarks, which opens another discussion. We need to improve and innovate on benchmarks. I think we’re under-benchmarking because the ceiling is a lot higher than we thought a year or two ago. We need innovation in benchmarking to properly test these models.

  Lucas:
  I think you’re going to see that. I actually just saw a story yesterday. We talked about this guy last week—I think his name is François Chollet, if I’m pronouncing that right.

  Mike Collins:
  Yeah, don’t worry about it.

  Lucas:
  He developed the ARC-AGI benchmark that’s used by a lot of companies, but he just announced he’s starting a new nonprofit all around benchmarking. I think we’ll see a lot of new efforts coming out soon.

  Mike Collins:
  That’s good. Selling our book here—with one of our portfolio companies, a very small, new company out in San Francisco—Hyperbolic Labs reported something that got a lot of pickup. They’re kind of a rent-a-GPU shop, and they’re finding independent agents knocking on their door and transacting with them.

  These things exist—they’re in the wild. They’re starting to do things, including buying GPU time. That was a nontrivial part of their report. I think it’s an early indicator, a canary in the coal mine for where the arrow is pointing: 2025 will be, in AI, the year of agents—things acting on your behalf, acting independently. It’s a very, very exciting space.

  Mike Collins:
  And again, I think the final thing I’m just going to mention this week, which we’ve touched on before, is just more and more on hardware and software. The big companies are all playing in robotics and AI—you’re seeing this out of Nvidia with both hardware and software. OpenAI has clearly indicated through its hiring that it’s going to be building robots and hardware. Apple has always been a hardware and software company.

  If you just go down the list—Elon clearly with Grok and Optimus is doing hardware/software—I think it’s a very interesting discussion of why. They’re both hard, but when you combine hardware and software, the moats can be much bigger, and you can take on whole new sets of problems.

  This is a planet run by humans and human scales, and if you’re going to solve problems, if you’re going to be effective, if you’re going to create value, you’re going to have to deal with the reality of human beings. Robotics that fit within human scale makes a lot of sense.

  I think we’re just seeing every week more coming out about software companies getting into hardware, hardware companies getting into software. It’s two plus two equals five. One of the things we feel very good about at AV is that a year ago, we merged our AI vertical fund with our robotics fund. Not that we aren’t making pure AI or pure robotics investments, but bringing those teams together, combining that fund, and helping our portfolio companies with the synergy between hardware and software was the right move. With everything going on in the marketplace, it looks like a pretty good decision.

  Lucas:
  Yeah, I think that’s right, and I think this is going to be a big theme for 2025, into 2026, and beyond. There’s a reason that on stage last week, Jensen Huang came out and, when it got to this section, there were rising robots behind him—almost as if he was Tony Stark introducing his new suits. Yeah, this is the future, and use cases abound.

  Samantha Herrick:
  Commercial break incoming. Sit tight. We’ll be back.

  Speaker 2:
  Exceptional value creation comes from solving hard things. Alumni Ventures’ Deep Tech Fund is a portfolio of 20 to 30 ventures run by exceptional teams tackling huge opportunities in AI, space, energy, transportation, cybersecurity, and more. These game-changing ventures have strong lead venture investors and practical approaches to creating shareholder value. If you are interested in investing in the future of deep tech, visit av.vc/deeptech to learn more.

  Mike Collins:
  Okay, what do you want to talk about as a big breakthrough for this week?

  Lucas:
  This is a sensitive topic for probably many in our audience. The LA wildfires that sparked earlier this year and are still not contained have been tragic. I have a lot of family in LA. One of my cousins lost his home. Others in my family are still moving through every day with lots of ambiguity, really uncertain of what their futures hold.

  But from the ashes, I think there’s going to be a lot of growth and a lot of investment in our future abilities to fight fires. As tech optimists, I thought this could be a good space to highlight some of those. AI-powered cameras, drones, aircraft, robots—as we were just talking about—are all being used to revolutionize wildfire detection and suppression. These innovations represent a real shift in how we manage and mitigate natural disasters in an era of climate change.

  A lot of our investing focuses on how to slow climate change, but also, in a world impacted by climate change, how do we respond effectively?

  Samantha Herrick:
  California is no stranger to wildfires, but the scale of destruction we’ve seen this year is just unprecedented. As of January 27, 2025, the day this episode was recorded, the state has already reported 306 wildfires, burning over 57,000 acres of land.

  The Los Angeles region has been hit particularly hard, with the Palisades and Eaton fires alone responsible for nearly 40,000 acres burned, over 12,000 structures destroyed, and at least 27 fatalities. Beyond the heartbreaking human toll, the economic impact is staggering. Insured losses from these fires are estimated at $28 billion, making this the most expensive wildfire season in U.S. history.

  To put this in context, last year California experienced over 8,000 wildfires burning one million acres, but the destruction we’re seeing in 2025 has escalated dramatically. Wildfires are no longer a seasonal issue—they’re a year-round challenge.

  This crisis underscores the urgent need for continued investment in fire prevention, preparedness, and innovative solutions to mitigate the impact of these disasters—which Mike and Lucas discuss in this section of the show.

  While the devastation caused by the 2025 California wildfires is undeniable, there’s another side to this story—a side that highlights resilience, innovation, and collective action in the face of adversity.

  First, the fires have sparked a renewed focus on community preparedness and resilience. Across Southern California, neighborhoods are coming together, developing improved disaster response strategies, and working to strengthen their readiness for future wildfires. This collaboration is making a tangible difference in how communities respond and recover from crises.

  Philanthropic efforts have also stepped up in a big way. Relief funds and initiatives have been established by organizations worldwide, showing the power of collective action when people come together to support one another during challenging times.

  On the innovation front, these fires are driving advancements in climate research and disaster planning. Scientists and policymakers are using lessons learned this season to translate climate data into practical tools for better preparation and future wildfire management. This includes more comprehensive disaster scenario planning to improve emergency preparedness.

  Rebuilding efforts are also creating opportunities for economic recovery. Federal assistance, insurance payouts, and reconstruction projects are stimulating local economies and providing jobs in areas like construction. These efforts not only help communities rebuild but also pave the way for economic renewal in affected regions.

  And let’s not forget about the critical awareness these fires have raised about climate change. More people are recognizing the urgent need for action, which could lead to greater public and policy support for climate initiatives in the years to come.

  Finally, the health impacts of the wildfires are prompting advancements in medical research—from improving treatments for smoke-related illnesses to addressing mental health challenges faced by affected communities. These efforts could save lives in the long term.

  Out of devastation, hope emerges in the form of stronger communities, smarter strategies, and a renewed commitment to building a better future. It’s a reminder that even in the darkest moments, innovation and resilience can light the way forward.

  Now, before we close this segment, on a personal note, we want to take a moment and say how deeply we here at Alumni Ventures on the East Coast feel for everyone affected by the wildfires on the West Coast. This devastation is absolutely heartbreaking, and our thoughts are with the communities navigating this aftermath.

  We wish nothing but brighter days ahead—a future with less turmoil and more resilience for those who have already endured so much.

  If, after hearing any of this, you think you want to help and make a difference, consider donating to Direct Relief at directrelief.org, where 100% of wildfire donations go directly to emergency response efforts. You can also visit the California Community Foundation’s Wildfire Relief Fund at calfund.org/wildfire-relief-fund, which supports displaced families and helps rebuild affected communities.

  Or you can contribute to the United Way’s Disaster Recovery Fund at unitedway.org. Every bit of support counts—whether it’s a donation, sharing these resources, or simply holding space for those going through this. Together, we can be part of the healing process.

  Lucas:
  I think we’re going to see much greater investment moving forward in public-private partnerships here. Just look at the ALERTCalifornia program—it’s in collaboration with Cal Fire and is at the forefront of that transformation. There are already over 1,000 AI-equipped cameras monitoring the state’s landscapes, and 1,000 is not nearly enough. I think that number is about to skyrocket in response to what we’re seeing and learning from the LA fires.

  Coming back to what we were just talking about, Nvidia is a leader in this space, providing computational power to develop intelligent, firefighting robots. That’s more futuristic relative to the AI-powered cameras, but these robots are designed to handle tasks that are just too dangerous for human crews. They could clear vegetation to create fire breaks, deliver critical supplies to isolated areas, or deploy retardants and extinguishing agents in severe hotspots—especially in cases where it’s difficult to deliver water without robotics.

  Mike Collins:
  You cannot understate the human tragedy, cost, and toll. We have family, friends—all of us—in that area. We’ve got portfolio companies in that area that are struggling and displaced. We can only hope that out of the ashes, as you put it, we build back better and smarter, and that we, unfortunately as a species, too often only respond to a crisis. Sometimes it has taken, unfortunately, the burning down of Chicago before we understand what needs to be done differently when we rebuild.

  Let’s hope and pray that technology can be part of the solution going forward to prevent this in the future. Information technology, scanners, robots, AI, hardware—as you mentioned, Lucas—the ability to detect, automate, and communicate. One can only hope that in a decade, armies of robots could be firefighters, clearing brush and proactively preventing this kind of tragedy.

  Because this week it’s California wildfires, but we also see the power of tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter storms. These have always existed, but clearly, there’s more of it now. I also think there’s weather tech that could help. Technologies now exist that can induce rain, and while winds made it so dry this time, with more proactive weather management—introducing rain and moisture—we could change the ecosystem.

  Lucas:
  How do we ensure that the ecosystem is not literally a tinderbox?

  Mike Collins:
  Yeah. I also think there’s potential in public-private partnerships. I’m hopeful for innovation there. I also think the insurance industry—too often relying on outdated models, outdated information, and poor incentives—is overdue for change. In the U.S. and globally, we can bring blockchain, AI, better data, improved risk management, and financial innovation to insurance. Innovation in that space is long overdue.

  Lucas:
  Yeah.

  Mike Collins:
  We need to fully price risk, mitigate it, and manage it an order of magnitude better. Let’s all be motivated first and foremost to help people today—not just talk about theories for the future. I encourage all of our friends out there to support people dealing with this tragedy now. But at the same time, let’s think about how we can do better moving forward.

  Lucas:
  Yep. I think that’s absolutely right.

  Mike Collins:
  The final topic today is a good news/bad news situation: disturbing numbers are coming out about dementia cases in the United States. It’s clearly tied to an aging population—which is good news in one sense; you don’t get dementia if life expectancy is 38—but the numbers are discouraging and growing. Dementia is an awful burden. The long goodbye is a terrible goodbye.

  That’s where we are today. But we are heavily invested in companies working in brain science, and there are some encouraging developments. Recent papers show promise in creating brain tissue and regenerative therapies for brain health, especially in areas addressing Parkinson’s.

  I strongly encourage you—and we’ll put some links in the show notes—to explore the exciting work being done in brain science. From regenerative brain tissue to approaches that can address diseases like Parkinson’s and dementia, this is a tale of two cities: troubling numbers ahead if no progress is made, but also hope with groundbreaking developments in life sciences.

  Samantha Herrick:
  Yeah.

  Mike Collins:
  Really important work that can truly impact people’s lives in the near future.

  Samantha Herrick:
  All right, to wrap up this episode, the last tech note I have for you today: Let’s take a closer look at some groundbreaking developments in brain health—advancements offering real hope for people living with neurodegenerative diseases like Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s, and dementia.

  In Parkinson’s research, a clinical trial by UCI Health is showing promising results with bemdaneprocel, a stem cell therapy designed to restore dopamine production in the brain. This approach targets the root cause of the disease and could slow its progression.

  Meanwhile, scientists at the University of Arizona have discovered PNA5, a small protein that may protect brain cells by reducing inflammation caused by overactive immune responses.

  For dementia and Alzheimer’s, researchers are focused on breaking through the blood-brain barrier, a major obstacle in treating brain disorders. New techniques, like ultrasounds combined with microbubbles and nanotechnology, are being tested to deliver drugs directly to the brain. These innovations could transform treatment options.

  Another exciting discovery involves the brain’s glymphatic system, which clears waste from the brain. Studies show that enhancing this process could help combat vascular dementia and cognitive decline.

  Finally, breakthroughs in gene therapy and neural stem cell reactivation are pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. By stimulating brain regeneration and delivering growth factors like GDNF, these approaches hold promise for repairing damage caused by diseases like Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s.

  These advances are paving the way for a brighter future in brain health, moving us closer to treatments and even cures for conditions once thought untouchable.

  Lucas:
  Yeah. Again, like you said, it’s another one of these delicate subjects, but the excitement around recent news about lab-grown brain immune cells—the microglia—is incredible.

  Scientists have developed lab-grown microglia from human skin cells that behave just like their natural counterparts. This offers an unprecedented way to study and potentially treat debilitating issues of the central nervous system and brain.

  We don’t even really know where this could lead. Dementia, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s—opportunity abounds. What’s great is that unlike traditional methods that rely on embryonic stem cells, this approach avoids ethical controversies. It uses skin cells from adult donors, making it a really interesting breakthrough. Over the next few years, it’ll be exciting to see what scientists achieve with this.

  Mike Collins:
  Yeah, and just to wrap it up, too—many of you know our back office headquarters is in an old mill building in Manchester, New Hampshire. Picture the old mills of Lowell, Lawrence, and Manchester—big, colossal buildings from the 1800s and early 1900s.

  The regeneration of these mill buildings is now bringing in tech companies. Hill Pack is just down the street, Dean Kamen is in our building, and there’s a consortium in these mills focused on regenerative medicine.

  There’s federal funding, and there are 20–30 startups in our mill working on regenerative medicine. We even have a helicopter pad on our building because tissue built here in New Hampshire needs to reach big Boston hospitals within 20 minutes. Nobody wants to fight 93 and 128 traffic, so they put it in a cooler, load it on a helicopter, and go rooftop to rooftop.

  It’s exciting to have neighbors working in regenerative medicine—a field that’s under the radar but doing amazing work that will impact the lives of our families and future generations.

  As exciting as AI is, there are fascinating areas beyond it where incredible people are doing hard, world-changing work. We wanted to shine a spotlight on that today.

  Lucas:
  Yep, let’s keep our eyes on the clinic—3D-printed human organs, lab-grown brain cells—it’s all out there. We’re going to see more and more coming to fruition over the next five to 10 years.

  Mike Collins:
  All right, have a good week, Lucas. It was fun. Everybody, stay well. Stay optimistic.

  Lucas:
  Have a good one, Mike. Thanks.

  Mike Collins:
  All right, take care.

  Samantha Herrick:
  Thanks again for tuning into the Tech Optimist. If you enjoyed this episode, we’d really appreciate it if you’d give us a rating on whichever podcast app you’re using, and remember to subscribe to keep up with each episode.

  The Tech Optimist welcomes any questions, comments, or segment suggestions, so please email us at info@techoptimist.vc and visit our website at av.vc. As always, keep building.